October 2025 U.S. Housing Market Update

Written By Kathryn Cole

National Trends & The Ozarks Spotlight
by Kathryn Cole | Sturdy Real Estate
Home is everything. Let’s talk about yours.

Hey friends,

October brought a mix of resilience and recalibration to the housing market. Prices held firmer than many expected, mortgage rates ticked slightly higher, and regional differences widened — especially between fast-growing southern metros and steadier heartland markets like The Ozarks.

National Overview

Housing activity cooled modestly from the summer highs, but demand remained stronger than a year ago. Persistent rate pressure kept affordability tight, yet limited inventory continued to support prices. Builders cautiously increased single-family starts, signaling confidence heading into 2026.

📊 Data Callouts:

  • Median existing home price: ≈ $411,000 (-0.3% MoM, +3.8% YoY)*

  • Housing inventory: ≈ 3.6 months supply (up slightly from September)*

Prices & Affordability

Price growth is decelerating but not reversing. The strongest gains remain in affordable metros where demand exceeds new supply. High-cost coastal markets are seeing mild pullbacks, while much of the Midwest and South hold steady.

  • FHFA’s national HPI up ~4% YoY

  • Shelter inflation slowed to 4.6% YoY, its lowest since 2022

  • Wage growth is finally outpacing monthly payment growth for some buyers

Mortgage Trends

Mortgage rates averaged around 6.9% for the 30-year fixed in October (📊 Freddie Mac series). Refi activity was minimal, but purchase applications showed a late-month rebound as buyers adjust to the “new normal.”

Higher rates are reshaping demand patterns: move-up buyers remain hesitant, but first-time buyers are increasingly active in lower-priced markets and small metro areas.

Regional Spotlight: The Ozarks

The Ozarks region continues to shine as a steady, affordable alternative to larger metros. Median prices are up ~5% YoY — outpacing national growth but still well below the coastal median. Migration from urban centers and strong local employment in healthcare and manufacturing keep housing demand healthy.

Builders are balancing materials costs with growing lot demand, leading to incremental new construction rather than speculative booms.

Forecast Note

If mortgage rates stabilize below 7% and inventory improves modestly, expect a gentle uptick in transaction volume through early 2026. Prices should continue to rise slowly, with regional markets like The Ozarks outperforming the national average.

Key Takeaways

  • National prices up ~4% YoY; growth slowing but steady

  • Mortgage rates near 7% continue to limit affordability

  • Inventory improving slightly but still below historic norms

  • The Ozarks remain a bright spot for affordable growth

  • Outlook: stable prices, gradual sales recovery in early 2026

Kathryn Cole | Sturdy Real Estate
Home is everything. Let’s talk about yours.

Kathryn Cole https://www.homeiseverything.com
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